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Pastimes : Trading the markets.....
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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (762)11/13/2000 6:57:09 PM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (1) of 4583
 
Hi Chip,

It seems I keep looking back to october 7-9 1998.During this time period the perfect bottom could have been "guessed at" during downdrafts like this a.m.'s.

After the pure lowest possible price occured - the next phase was a marginal rise in price but more importantly :positive divergences in: stoch,macd histogram,BOP and Moneystream (on TC2000).

These indicators began to climb as the price floated sideways.I view this as slow and quiet institutional accumulation. It can only go on so long and then the float gets absorbed.At this point the bidding begins to drive price.Then we get a change in psychology (the street will hype it on some event) I will call it institutional greed.

O'Neill calls it a rally day followed by a follow thru day with new leaders breaking out. I think (and hope ) KVHI will be such a leader.

I think you're on it - look for breakouts on stocks that haven't gone thru distribution.Many of the stocks I watch I've sold out of 4-5 times. They're in the semi equip cycle. I love this cycle as it is a very short term cycle(about every 2 years)

If it continues I don't mind buying a little early as I want to hold them 12 months anyhow for the cap gains treatment.

When your in them for a year and there up 100% it is fun to own them another 6 months as you pyramid up. This keeps me watching instead of dumb fat and happy.

Let's hope it happens one more cycle. HEHEHEH

Bob
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