Here's a snippet from Adam Lashinksy's column today quoting rather bearish comments from Edelstone regarding potential negative growth for Intel next year. Could someone tell me how he can be so bearish on Intel and so bullish on Rambus? I'm finding it hard to reconcile although Rambus is still one of my one or two favorite stocks. Its easily discernable chart patterns have sustained me through the last few days of this market BS:
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A Painful Observation on Intel
Imagine an uncommented-upon news item that said something like, "Hollywood won't make any movies next year, will focus on marketing old ones." Or picture this: "Earth to spin other direction for year."
Well, that's the rough equivalent of a small news item last week that Morgan Stanley Dean Witter semiconductor analyst Mark Edelstone not only had lowered his ratings and earnings estimates for Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news - boards) for 2000 and 2001. More shocking -- doubly so for the deadening silence that followed it -- is that Edelstone forecasts that Intel will earn less in 2001 than in 2000.
The rest of Wall Street still forecasts that Intel will grow per-share earnings by 3% in 2001 to $1.73. But Edelstone now sees Intel earning $1.68 this year, in line with the rest of the Street and an easy number to hit because of Intel's guidance. He thinks EPS will drop to $1.65 in 2001.
Think about that for a second. One of the most influential analysts on the Street, an unrepentant Intel bull over the years, sees the leader of the semiconductor industry experiencing negative earnings growth next year.
Asks a source who has successfully shorted Intel shares on their way down from $75 less than three months ago to Monday's close of $38.19, up 3%: "What do you pay for a growth company with negative growth?"
Good question. Investors currently are paying about 22 times the consensus estimate for Intel's 2001 earnings. Seeing as the price-to-earnings ratio typically roughly approximates a company's growth rate, there's clearly a disconnect there.
As for Edelstone, he has a neutral rating on Intel, and he holds out the possibility of the situation worsening, not improving." We believe Intel faces significant gross margin risk in 2001, and we have adopted more conservative gross margin assumptions," he told clients Friday.
Gulp. |
