Exactly...
While I admire someone that builds a 25 $ Billion corporation, in the technology arena, it's endurance that counts...
I think, for a sun lover like me, that SUN will survive nicely, go in decline some years from now and become a slow grower like IBM
I think MicroSoft is a survivor, with them having "internalized" severe lessons thes last few years and is willing to learn...
# 1 they almost missed the internet, but in 1995 got on board, and now dominate some portions of it.
# 2 Their .Net initiative is pretty impressive, and is the 2nd revolution in 5 years. Just for that, they have internalized Clayton Christensen's Innovator's dilemma, where you take short term pain (and how!) but go towards the right direction for the future.
# 3 Linux is a joke, with puny vendors, pretty lame business models and unbelievable complexity for the average user.
Dell, I just do not know.
With no real research arm, a superb B2B/B2C model, could they be a "House organ" product RETAILER ? If that is so, it is not just growth that has slowed down, but P/E compression as they become a retailer and not really a computer company.
Maybe with Intels McKinley & Windows 2000 DataCenter, in 2 years or more, thaey can start growing like SUN, I doubt it thgough..
Microsoft has many, many horses to ride, .Net ASP products, Internet properties, the OS business, the server software business, the applications business, MSN... Dell doe snot really, as they require massive research efforts(and a big research arm) that they do not have.
Whaddy think ?
take care
Jean |
