Brian, MSFT will have record revenues and record profits both in Dec Q and in FY01, FY02, FY03.
This is the first Q, where all the new products will finally see a full Q (such as WinME, Exchange2k, SQL2k, Macoffice2001, Windows2000SR1,Office2000Sr1,...). All indications that I see are that the much anticipated corporate upgrades have started. Look at laptop sales at HP, DELL, CPQ, IBM. HP had 165% growth, DELL, CPQ saw 65% or so growth in laptops. Also growth in Windows2000 servers are very strong.
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Stanek surveyed several corporations about their plans for
Windows 2000 and was surprised to see that many of them were planning to
adopt the new software -- but without ADS. Previously, most observers
thought Microsoft would do everything it could to discourage companies from
disengaging the ADS feature. In addition, many feared that the software would
be much less stable and prone to breakdowns without ADS operating.
That hasn't been the case, according to Stanek. "Our research indicates that
[information technology] administrators can deploy Windows 2000 without
ADS and still capture many of the compelling benefits of the upgrade now," he
says. He goes on to predict that two-thirds of Windows 2000 installations in
2001 will be done without ADS. Previously, the assumption was that almost
every incident of Windows 2000 would occur with ADS enabled.
If Stanek is correct -- that companies are finding it easy and favorable to
deploy Windows 2000 without ADS -- it could drastically alter some of the
pessimistic forecasts of Windows 2000's fortunes.
One analyst, Melissa Eisenstadt of Credit
Suisse First Boston, did note that the past quarter's results, which Microsoft
reported in late October, showed higher-than-expected Windows 2000 sales,
which bodes well for the all-important first two quarters of 2001. "The
earlier-than-expected momentum in Windows 2000 suggests there could be
upside to our revenue forecast," she wrote in an October report. |
