Hi Walt,
I have always enjoyed your technical analysis of Amati stock. I have been in Amati stock for a long time. I am presently awash in a sea of red ink. I have been following the excellent views of a lot of very intelligent and enthusiastics folks such as Pat, Jim Willkinson, yourself and others. Fundamentally I have now sadly come to the conclusion that last year's rise in the price of the stock was unwarranted based on present information. It was based on contract ($) etc. In Amati what we have is a lot of great technology, including some big potential and press releases galore. Do you remember the Australian (Telstra), Swiss telco, NEC, TI, MOT etc press releases. No doubt Amati has technology and presently are in the lead. However as more time goes on their lead will dissipitate and it does not look as good for Amati. just look they are the sole standard, patents, chip partners, systems integrators etc. Everything! But now we need those chips from MOT, not in small quantities, but in volume to address cost and power concerns. We also need the same from TI Chips (Amati SW). But most of all we need a concrete deployment order. Amati has had a lot of good news in terms of partnerships, products etc. They have managed to sign-up with Siemens, Sumitomo, NEC etc and this is a big plus for them. We keep hearing that ADI might license and as per today's post from Pat they might even getting closer to a deal with Alcatel (no guarantees).
I suspect that based on the last go around before the Interop, we had a flurry of buying. This has lifted the averages up (both short and long). We may have a support level around 12 or so. Folks are hanging in there for new announcements. This is becoming a story stock. I am afraid that we migh see yet another announcement (partnership?) that just adds another brick to the foundation, not much else. I would love to be wrong, but I am afraid they will not have a deployment ($) announcement just yet. After all the indications are that next year will be the first deployment year and so we might be early. In the meantime Amati's lead might be shrinking.
However I will continue to follow your analysis and continue to hang in there. Good luck to all.
Regards
MD |
