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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems
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To: Prognosticator who wrote (37764)11/14/2000 3:15:50 PM
From: chic_hearne  Read Replies (1) of 64865
 
Good luck trying to outguess the market. By the law of averages at least some of the people trying to outgess it will succeed.

FWIW, this is what I'm doing.

I think at this point, preservation of capital should be key. Therefore I'm going 80-90% cash overnight every night. I am smart enough to understand that my gains earlier this year were LUCK and not skill. I was trading recklessly and just got plain lucky a few times.

With the other 10-20% I'm trading only options. Both calls and poots, usually on the same stocks. Timeframe for a trade is 10-20 days unless I get an immediate big move. I'm not trying to time the market up or down completely, only to a certain degree. What I'm counting on more is extreme volitility. For example, ahead of MSFT earnings I took a bearish stance and bought out of the money calls. It rallied so hard I still got out with a gain even though I lost big on the poots. Usually, if a trade goes against me the calls or poots I'm using as a hedge just ease the pain, MSFT was a lucky one. The only thing that kills me is if the stock doesn't move or I get impatient. This happened with my recent SUNW trade where it was stuck in a trading range for 10 days and I closed at a loss. I'm trying to spread things out with different sectors and if only 1 out of 3 trades or so give me big volitility I'll do alright.

I plan to be a long term buy and holder, possibly selling calls on my longs, once I am convinced this market has bottomed.
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