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Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK)

NOK 6.505

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3:59 PM EST

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To: EJhonsa who wrote (49)	11/14/2000 3:51:45 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (2) of 9255

Those are good points, Eric - and I at least try to understand the network problems. But I get this sense that a lot of people aren't even attempting to understand the consumer product side of the equation. That's why so many people flat out refused to even consider the possibility of Korea adopting W-CDMA. They only looked at the network build-up costs and simply refused to contemplate roaming and handset availability. I'm talking about the consumer product issues, because that is something many people have resolved to ignore at all costs. That doesn't mean I don't accept the spectrum problems - I just don't rank it as the most important issue in the industry. In addition to Korea, the "no way, no how" mentality was used to shut out any possibility that Brazil might want to migrate to W-CDMA. And now the indications that AT&T and Cingular are considering adopting GPRS is also facing the same incredulity and scorn. It's clear by now that Korean operators do not want to end up with a 3G standard that would isolate the country from full-fledged Asian roaming. It is possible that cdma2000 can guarantee region-wide roaming - but it does not look likely. You talk about cdma2000 being available by 2003. Fine; but this does not address the production volume problems. It does not remove the uncertainty about just how committed the handset vendors willl be. If Korean IT companies are now doing a sharp U-turn to realign themselves with the W-CDMA world - would they really cherish the chance of another U-turn in a couple of years? Spectrum problems may be a really big issue - but apparently the "orphan standard" issue looms just as big. Ignoring the latter issue only makes the recent decisions made by various operators seem totally incomprehensible; which they are not. There aren't any easy options left for either Korea, Brazil or US TDMA operators. They just need to pick the smallest evil. Those decisions are not going to be a slam-dunk - which some expected them to be. Tero

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