Structure of y2k industry: An intelligent and well researched post by Mark on MF board. I agree with the post and am reposting it here for who would like to read the analysis of the bigger picture of Y2K industry. Problem is real and huge and MatriDigm is emerging as a hub of the y2k Industry as indicated by Kevin Shieck.
Following is the post from mark, happy reading.
<<I am not going to sight Lines of code, or scope of the problem here because those paying attention have heard all that many times and I recommend anyone new to this topic to dig out that background before jumping into any Y2k investment. Either you believe this is a big problem or you don't, if you don't believe this is big then I can see the attraction in shorting the entire sector. I personally believe this is a bigger problem then has been
indicated by the research houses and the media.
How will it all be managed?
There are hundreds of companies offering some Y2k service or another, most are consultants who provide initial assessment, impact analysis and functional testing for Y2k compliance.
All of these consultants will assist their clients in finding a partner who can actually process the source code and find the date references and fix them to be Y2k compliant. There are only a few alternatives to this "middle" part of the total solution.
MatriDigm and Peritus are two of the better known (at least here) ortions, there are a few others saying they have a find/fix capability, CCD Online and ConSyGen are two who say they have a (semi-) automated solution. Several vendors offer offshore "sweatshops" where human programmers provide the find/fix services.
We know from documented reports that Peritus is able to find on average 90% (others find/fix alternatives average closer to 80%) of the date lines that need repair, while 90% sounds great at first glance, once you realize that the missing 10% all but negates the effort from the start, leaving you with a still crippled application that forces you to (manually) search for these "missed" dates, it loses its appeal rather quickly.
Human error will only add to the expense of Y2k as final operational testing starts and these errors are located, at which point the source code will need to be re-repaired and re-tested again, and again...... this represents the most expensive part of the project.
No consultant, given the choice would choose a flawed solution if, first they knew of a near perfect one, and second the cost was acceptable given the results achieved and the deadline that won't move. Not to mention that same consultant could handle more clients by using the more efficient find/fix process.
Viasoft, IBM, EDS, C&L and others have been mentioned here as competition to MatriDigm and or Zitel, I want to propose that all of these and many (virtually all) others will become clients of MatriDigm and yes, even Zitel.
If MatriDigm can achieve the 99.99% accuracy in finding dates as they have stated was their goal, any competitor who may be able to achieve 98% is no longer really competition, especially with larger applications or critical ones. The executive management at MatriDigm consists of three of the best and brightest industry leaders out there today, they have stated publicly that in the millions of lines they have processed to date they have not
had a missed date show up. We as investors have a choice, either we believe them or we don't. I have chosen to be critical, researching and digging for facts, but I am not a skeptic, I do not disbelieve them. Honor, ethics and dignity are on their side and I have learned to respect them for their past achievements. All this to say that for the time being some trust is required (but not blind trust) We have some evidence that indicates that
the factory solution MatriDigm has is what we have been told it is. I will site the State of Nevada as one example.
I have been a computer consultant for almost 20 years and have contacts (resources) in a lot of different businesses, from speaking to them and learning from them what Y2k opportunities they are pursuing I have heard MatriDigm's name more and more recently. There are a lot of people watching this company and trying to figure what advantages they may bring to their own services. Again, if MatriDigm can deliver I have no fear and can see that
they will be deluged with work.
All of the computerized systems in use today are suspect and will need to be certified as Y2k compliant before the end of the decade. Many of them are mainframe "legacy" systems that cannot be readily replaced and those that may have been candidates for replacement in 1995 now need to be repaired instead, the deadline of the year 2000 prohibits responsible executives from taking the unnecessary risk of missing the deadline and having systems
fail by trying to achieve some perceived ROI in the short run.
It is important to remember that MatriDigm is in the software maintenance business, Y2k is a market opportunity that MatriDigm will use to introduce it's long term products and services. It is my belief that MatriDigm entered the Y2k market because they feel they can be the best. MatriDigm stands to gain everything by showing clients how effective their factory solution is, and nothing by being an also ran.
With tens of thousands of systems needing repair and only a few available resources as well as a deadline that requires everyone to be compliant at the same time, there is going to be a problem. Already every consulting firm is brimming with work (while hardly any conversion has been done yet), the experts are very aware that the bottleneck of limited resources is a major problem. Someone needs to coordinate this effort.
Viasoft has announced (in Jan 97) a program called C-Era, which is a start towards a coordinated solution. All Y2k consultants will need to work together contributing their expertise and experience where it can be most effective. There is no time to learn the ropes here, if EDS (example) has the skills needed by solve issues at one of Anderson Consulting's (example) clients then a task force will be formed. Competition will not exist in the
classic sense until after this crisis is resolved. These types of alliances need to be formed now, I expect we will hear about them as summer gets underway, the time to negotiate is short, an assembly line approach needs to be instituted soon.
With this level of urgency all but upon us, accepting a slow, cumbersome, inaccurate find and fix is not an option, not when there is an alternative. In 1995 when the opportunity started to become clear the only alternative seemed to be bringing together an army of programmers and setting up a manual factory to find and fix the code. Now that MatriDigm is ready the focus is changing, very little of the front-end assessment and inventory has
been completed, in fact very little of it has been started, even at this late date. The manual factory solution has (as predicted) proven to be painstakingly slow and prone to errors, semi-automated solutions have proven to be little better because of the amount of dates they miss and the time involved in trying to track those missed dates down manually. The industry is realizing that if (indeed still hard for many to believe) but, if
MatriDigm has what they say they have they need to work toward capitalizing on its (the factories) capabilities.
No one has claimed to have the tools to find and fix all the dates that can be found in a fully automated way except MatriDigm. Again if this is true, MatriDigm needs a system that lets everyone have access to their solution. MatriDigm's VARs and Partners will be the pipeline to make this happen. Already MatriDigm has invented and is selling the PrepTool which insures that all is in order before code reaches the factory door. It will be
difficult for MatriDigm to add and coordinate hundreds of VARs but it is possible, an alternative may be to funnel work in via the existing VARs. Zitel is positioned to act as liaison providing the PrepTool or just scheduling factory time for other consultants.
Zitel is not the most experienced Y2k consulting company out there and I agree with the argument that they will not become the most experienced in the few months left until 2000. What I see happening is Zitel acting as coordinator for MatriDigm's factory. As MatriDigm comes on-line and the market sees exactly how accurate and how much MatriDigm can save in both time and dollar cost, lines will form as consultants vie for time in the factory.
Businesses and Governments who are starting in-house Y2k efforts will not ignore MatriDigm's advantage and will be looking to get in line as well, Zitel will be working to slot these jobs and even assist with PrepTool level services. Zitel has stated that they plan to partner with anyone who can help them get the client Y2k complient in time. I don't think we should underestimate the potential of such arrangements that will be made in the
coming months.
If this problem is big, and if MatriDigm has what they state they have in terms of a solution, we should be trying to determine not who will use their solution but how MatriDigm and Zitel can best accommodate the shear volume of different businesses and other "non-VAR" Y2k Consultants that will be knocking on their factory door.
How much work will Zitel broker for MatriDigm because they are so closely connected? MatriDigm has stated that all work will be funneled through the VARs, how many of these VARs will have resources left over that can be dedicated to slotting time to "non-client" code conversion?
Can or will any "sane" consultant ignore the advantages MatriDigm says they can offer? With the Find and Fix portion made fast and accurate and therefore streamlining the final test phase of Y2k compliance, how many additional Y2k clients might the average VAR be able to take on?
MatriDigm management has placed their reputations on the line in this effort to be the leading Y2k conversion solution, while it is possible that they will miss their goals, it seems more likely that they will exceed them. Windowing, the PrepTool and additional language support are in place and other languages are in the pipeline, with the delays mostly behind them at this point and with the slow start of the front-end work it looks like
MatriDigm is well positioned to be ready in time to take full advantage of this fast emerging market.
Mark >> |
