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Technology Stocks : Network Appliance
NTAP 117.26+1.1%Dec 5 9:30 AM EST
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To: Miguel Octavio who started this subject11/15/2000 11:46:46 AM
From: pirate_200  Read Replies (1) of 10934
 
Some history (CSCO/EMC) across $1B revenue barrier:

I went back and pulled the fiscal years for EMC and CSCO where they
crossed the $1B revenue barrier. EMC grew about 75% through their
first billion and CSCO grew about 91.5%. See:

EMC $783M to $1.377B (75.8%)
CSCO $649M to $1.243B (91.5%)

If we plug in NTAP's target of $1.1B for this year, we
get for NTAP:

NTAP $579.3M to $1.1B (90%)

If we use his 10% to 15% guidance for quarter-to-quarter
sequential growth, we get:

10%: NTAP $579.3M to $1.091B (88%)
15%: NTAP $579.3M to $1.133B (95%)

It looks like EMC's revenue growth slowed beyond the $1B
barrier whereas CSCO still had years of greater than 100%
growth. These are all just references for comparison.
NTAP always has seemed to be between an EMC and CSCO.

As to stock price, and again this is just general targets,
if NTAP hits the conservative .40 to .41 for the fiscal
year, we get the following using 90% growth with 2X and
3X price-to-earnings growth (PEG) multiplier:

2X: .41 x 90 x 2 = $74
3X: .41 x 90 x 3 = $110

Going forward to the next fiscal year, with conservative
70% NAS growth and conservative 70% earnings growth,
with 2X and 3X bounds:

2X: .69 x 70 x 2 = $96
3X .69 x 70 x 3 = $145

Of course, this is just my 2 cents - or whatever the cost
of the few bytes of disk space this note takes up - which
is probably less than 2 cents! :) As always, double check
the math!
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