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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Don Lloyd who wrote (85519)	11/15/2000 5:11:38 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (1) of 132070

Don, please follow madison.hss.cmu.edu and follow the links there. I find some of the papers quite compelling. If you have criticism of the stats work, do post it. To your points: the '96 result is a rhetorical red herring; I know I'm supposed to look at the raw totals, but you forget that 1996 was a different time in which Buchanan polled much better in FL statewide than in 2000; PBC was no outlier that year. I remain befuddled by the lack of expected "roll off" in the US senate vote vs the Gore vote. One of the papers explicitly compares the PBC Gore/Nelson vote against a control, Leon County -- this ends up buttressing the criticisms of the 'butterfly'. As for the FL state senate, I have no data, but can think of plenty of explanations. Recall: I am nonpartisan here (I hate both main candidates), but I do have an education in mathematics. I find the academic work convincing, with particular fondness for Henry Brady's paper (UCB link) and the Harvard one. FD: I've met Henry. -mb

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