Statistics point to more than random error in Florida vote
By Jace Radke
<jace@lasvegassun.com>
LAS VEGAS SUN
At one in 49 million, the chances of hitting Megabucks on one spin are slim, but not as slim as the odds that Vice President Al Gore would make up as much ground as he has in the Florida recount, according to a UNLV study.
Economics professor Tom Carroll began running statistical equations Thursday on the net gains both Gore, who gained more than 2,200 votes, and Texas Gov. George W. Bush, who added about 700 votes, have made in the recount. He found that the statistical chances for such large and different totals to occur as a result of random glitches was less than infinitesimal.
"The probability of being struck by lightning is about one in a million," Carroll said. "The same person would have to be hit by lightning 30 times to compare with what we've seen in this recount."
Carroll's equations assume that any problems in the original counting of ballots in Florida were caused by computer errors or innocuous human errors, and the chances that errors of this magnitude were the result of computer or human mistakes is extremely thin according to Carroll's calculations.
"A recount is a 50-50 proposition, so statistically speaking, making up something like 1,700 votes is highly unlikely," Carroll said. "For this to have been just random error is statistically unlikely. It wouldn't be unlikely to see some changes in the number of votes during a recount, but the differences should come much closer to canceling each other out."
Carroll, a Democrat, used the computations to illustrate a point in his Thursday night statistics class for students seeking a master's degree in business administration.
"The students were flabbergasted to see what they've been learning applied to a real-life situation," Carroll said. "It really is a small, small number as far as the chances of such a big difference between the changes in the numbers of votes between the candidates. It's something like 179 zeros and then a two and a three."
Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., and former Gov. Bob Miller, honorary chairman of the Gore campaign in Nevada, are among the Democratic officials nationwide questioning the chances of such irregularities showing up in the recount.
"As someone who has experienced two close recounts, I know that they don't usually lead to big changes in the vote totals," Reid said at a Thursday news conference. "This election changes all the rules. In the Florida recount we've seen huge changes in the vote totals, and on top of that, there are serious allegations of voting irregularities and potential fraud. This election needs to be scrutinized closely."
Reid went through a recount of Washoe County when Senator-elect John Ensign attempted to win Reid's seat in 1998. On election night Reid won by 401 votes, and after the recount the final margin was 428.
Bush had a 1,784-vote election night lead over Gore. After the recount, the unofficial margin for Bush is 327 votes.
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