Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 323.62

+6.4%

2:08 PM EST

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To: john via who wrote (39706)	11/15/2000 5:46:29 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Even with a lower guidance, i think many analysts will recommend it at the current low price. There was no sense of the semiconductor cycle turning sharply down in their conference call. Given the valuation for this stock, I think many will will say that it is worth buying at current prices. Forward PE is about 11 to 12 or so. That would only be high if there was some risk of growth coming to an abrupt halt. Instead we are seeing AMAT accepting the forecast of 20% growth for next year as published by the semiconductor industry association. In addition, note that AMAT admitted to being cautious going forward and may have given themselves a lower bar for the next quarter just so they can beat it easily. No need to to be optimistic now; do it later on is a good strategy, IMHO. Even if gross margins come in line with current quarter, they still hit the 80 cent range. I think they already know they will get at least 80; and just want to surprise the street at next earnings. That was the impression I got from their cc. I think AMAT heads higher tomorrow. PE of 11 to 12 for next year is a steal. Remember bookings were strong! Good Luck.

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