100% agreed, ditto on your comment re. consensus. however, you have to keep in mind that a bearish consensus has by no means formed - even the bears are looking for a tradable low in the near future. last week AAII had 63% bulls and 9% bears, one of the most extreme bullish consensus readings in the poll's history.
that said, all former bubble favorites - and that includes of course the semis - are liable to produce pretty sizeable, and thus tradable rallies as the bear market continues to unfold.
you have to give it a bit of time...remember, the bull market progressed well beyond what anyone thought possible, or reasonable only a few years ago. and yet, institutional money managers currently entertain their most bullish, and most fully invested stance of the past 6 years. in other words, they are NOW more bullish than they were with the NAZ in triple digits and the Dow in the 3,000's.
the bottom will not just have SI posters looking down - when it is nigh, EVERYBODY will be looking down, not even Harpo will be bullish anymore, assuming she still has her job by that time.
that said, using SI as a contrary indicator for very short term time frames is often amusingly accurate. |
