I question the 5 billion year end of cycle call. I think that the current cycle could last at least 2 billion years longer then the original calculation. The solar system dynamics have changed during the past 10 years since Gore invented the Internet. It's a new paradigm!!!! It ain't over 'til it's over!
NY Natural Gas Review: Hits New High on Unexpected AGA Draw
Nov. 15-MAR--
By Robert Gibbons, BridgeNews
New York--Nov. 15--NYMEX Dec Henry Hub natural gas futures hit another
all-time near month high Wednesday after an unexpected decrease in U.S.
natural gas storage reported by the American Gas Association. Dec gas
settled up 24.9 cents at $6.265, after reaching $6.32 when AGA reported
storage at 2,742 billion cubic feet last week, a 6 bcf draw that was
counter to most expectations.
* * *
Brokers and analysts surveyed had expected storage data to be flat, or
show a small build.
"It was the AGAs and the East didn't inject as much as it should
have," said a trader.
The eastern consuming region had a build of only 4 bcf to 1,682 bcf,
or 92% of capacity. The deficit to year-ago levels in the East is now 48
bcf.
While the cold weather currently extending over much of the U.S. has
helped spike prices and increase worries over supplies, the question now
is whether it will be sustained.
BridgeNews Global Weather Services said Wednesday that the surge of
cold air that will move across the eastern U.S. next week is unlikely to
last long enough to induce a persistent, strong demand for supplemental
heating fuel (see story .19416). GWS said the odds do not favor a
continuation of cold weather much beyond the end of this month with its
initial onset expected next week.
Parallels to 1946 suggest a warm December may lie ahead for much of the
nation.
But near term, there will be shortened, holiday-affected trading next
week.
"Next week's (AGA) report is set to come out after the market closes,"
said a trader expecting a 100 bcf withdrawal. The NYMEX will shut early
next Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, leaving traders
unable to react to Wednesday's report until overnight Access trading opens
Sunday evening.
"That should be supportive coming into (next) Wednesday," said a
trader.
In the spot market today, Henry Hub Nov next-day supplies were last
seen trading in a $5.91-$5.99 range, off the early morning highs of
$6.01-$6.02, but up from mid-day's $5.83-$5.87 range.
Outlook
Brokers, traders and analysts are now looking at the possibility of
$7.00 natural gas.
"Lucky seven is a realistic possibility, and may turn out to be
conservative," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago.
One trader, in the wake of the AGA's, pointed to Elliot wave theory
resistance levels at $6.35, $6.56 and $7.40.
Independent of that trader, another said that in the late morning he
saw, "a lot of $6.57, $7.50 calls trading over the counter." End |
