Rande Is: I have to side with $Mogul's take on this. While I think the NASDAQ bottom is probably in the 2700-2800 range, I do not think that the P/E multiples of the most richly priced stocks (NTAP, VRTS, JDSU, SEBL, JNPR, CIEN, ITWO, etc) fully reflect the dramatic decrease in profits and growth that is being forecast for the next quarter or two. I think these stocks can still go dramatically lower and, if they do, they will not bounce back quickly. Can you say, "Qualcomm?"
I agree that the key is whether the Fed begins to lower interest rates next year. I think they have underestimated the effect of this years series of rate hikes, but I do not see them lowering rates until the Summer or Fall 2001. For this reason, I am avoiding the high-flyers in the tech sector I've listed above for the first half of 2001. Having said that, I think that the end of year 2001 will be a great investment opportunity. |
