Tom:
My gang had a field day with the internet stukas early in the spring (which I recommended as a "shotgun-the-sector" short in December and posted as such on the MB thread). In retrospect, following the slaughter, I should have probably spent some time culling out a nice list of "mortally wounded" from among the survivors, but I felt that the gods had been more than kind and I was anxious to build up exposure in the PC/semi sector, which looked like it was finally ready to crumble. As it turns out, that also has worked out reasonably well, so there are no complaints at this end. (g)
With respect to AMZN, while it is acting like "Jason" (of the Hallowe'en movie series), it is nevertheless bullet-riddled and must sooner or later drop into its well deserved grave. The debt has now become the dominant factor, and there is simply no way that the company can dodge a date with the bankruptcy courts. It will require patience, but given tightening credit markets and the company's silly business plan (ship a dollar's worth of product for ninety cents), it shouldn't take long.
Like a bit of gold, puts on this turkey are "core". (g)
With respect to recommendations, as I am inevitably too "early", I usually refrain from being specific. As an example of this, I currently believe that within the next week or so, an extremely nasty down leg in our unfolding bear market is probable (so it will probably not happen until the Spring). (g)
As I am lousy at technical analysis, obviously this belief is based on the acceleration I see in the approaching recession. Basically, I expect a DELUGE of bad news (at exactly the time when the market is used to receiving plenty of good news) to overwhelm the markets as we head into the normally bouyant Christmas selling season.
I still see the best pickings (at least for me) in the PC/semi, telecom, optical, and internet infrastructure stocks. Yes, they have been punched up a bit, but they are still insanely over-valued and they still have tons of future bad news that will provide plenty of indigestion. Like many on this thread, I also see the banking and brokerage stocks as inevitable near term casualties, so I like exposure here as well. Finally, I think that buying good junior golds (with large proven reserves) is nothing so much as buying currency insurance ,..... and getting to keep the premium!
Hope this is helpful.
Best, Earlie |
