A few economists are going against the crowd and predicting a hard landing:
iht.com
Hints of a Hard U.S. Economic Landing
Steven Pearlstein Washington Post Service Thursday, November 16, 2000
WASHINGTON If you like the uncertainty of the 2000 presidential election, you will love the U.S. economy next year.
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Economists and policymakers have been talking up the likelihood of a soft landing, in which overheated economic growth would slow, but not anywhere near enough to cause an economy shrinking recession. The burst in the dot-com bubble, the slowing of job growth, the decline in the stock market - all were said to be consistent with the much hoped-for soft landing.
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But some analysts in recent weeks have begun to warn that the landing may be a bit bumpier than first thought. While recession is still considered unlikely, there is growing fear that the economy may overshoot the runway.
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"In my view, we're in for something harder than a soft landing," said Allen Sinai, an economist with Decision Economics Inc. "The bad news is coming in quite quickly now."
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Don Hilber, a forecaster with Wells Fargo Corp., said the most likely scenario now was for a "rough landing," which he warned won't be pretty, even if a recession is avoided. He predicts a rash of business failures, layoffs in many industries and a sharp drop in corporate profits and consumer spending.
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And Morgan Stanley Dean Witter's chief economist, Stephen Roach, told clients this week to "remain on maximum alert for a global hard landing in the first half of 2001." |
