lol.
The double secret guidance...
Me: Mr CFO, I remember from your confercall that you said you closed 70% of biz in the first 2 months of the Sep quarter and implied that you put a lot of Sep's revs away for a rainy day, is that true?
CFO: We are comfortable with analyst estimates.
Me: Well, can you tell me if as of Nov 16, you are ahead or behind where you were last quarter?
CFO: per F-D, I don't know if I can answer that without putting out a press release.
Me: There is nobody from the SEC here, bro. Look, I can ask you 20 questions along these lines and you can keep citing F-D but the fact is that your receivables were up and your deferred revs were flat last quarter. Unless you are going to give me some help on these numbers and give investors some confidence on the near-term, your stock is going to single digits and believe me, I am not going down with the ship.
CFO: What I can tell you is that business continues to be robust and that we think that the guidance we gave last month is conservative.
Me: How conservative?
CFO: I can't answer that.
Me: Well, as a shareholder in your company, can you give me any comfort that things aren't getting tighter at XYZ & Co?
CFO: I really can't say more than that, we are comfortable with analyst estimates.
Me: Look, consensus estimates are bullshit. They have been bullshit for a long time now and FD hasn't changed that. can you tell me what deferred revenues will look like at the end of this quarter?
CFO: Is there anything in the FD rule that discusses deferred revenues?
Me: No.
CFO: Oh, well I think d/r will be up due to yadda yadda yadda.... Look, we have a lot of off balance sheet backlog as well... and we are very comfortable with our business momentum, which has continued from last quarter into this quarter.
Me: Then why were D/R down and A/R not commensurately down?
CFO: Our balance sheet will bounce around a little but we have been hitting our internal plan.
Me: It doesn't look like it from the outside. It looks to me like things are getting tighter because I can't see anything in these numbers and you guys are acting like the balance sheet is no big deal. Well, if all I have to go on is your P&L and B/S, your stock looks like a short.
CFO: <blank stare>
Me: analyst estimates call for about 9% sequential growth this quarter and $.90 next year.
CFO: yes
Me: If you do 9% this quarter, you will be losing market share, are you losing market share?? Who to??
CEO jumps in: We are NOT losing market share
Me: IDC forecasts your market to be growing 70% per year which implies that if you don't do at least 15-20% per quarter, you will be losing share?
CEO: No, we are not losing market share.
Me: This quarter?
CFO: We think that at 9% we would be losing share. However, we believe we will continue to take share and we will take share this quarter.
Me: ok, thanks for the update. |
