Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 304.08

+2.2%

Feb 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: Thomas DeGagne who wrote (39756)	11/16/2000 1:55:50 PM
From: Kirk ©	of 70976

no. Price roll-off has always been a predictor for order and backlog to later roll-off. Backlog is a trailing indicator. The reason we asked Gottfried to do a chart of backlog was to see how much cushion there is. I believe AMAT and others can survive a 0.8 b2b for some time just by working off backlog. Thus they could stay very profitable with the use of layoffs, etc... I think a large backlog means they are less cyclical... but that is just conjecture. geocities.com You will notice that the price recovers before the backlog and orders recover. The price is more dependent on the industry that puts between 5 and 20% of net revenue into capital equipment. geocities.com The above tells me that the orders for semi equipment are predicting that there will be a slowing in orders for semiconductors. What we really think is happening is the order GROWTH will slow, but overall orders will still be higher. IF this is true, then the equipment makers are a bargain. IF it is false and we really do get a hard landing where semi orders see an actual decline, then the equipment makers will see a big decline also. The market seems to be falling all over itself to actually predict this so they can buy at the bottom of the next cycle and make more money selling at a peak. They might actually be forcasting shadows. geocities.com I have all the links along with some other useful stuff here: pw2.netcom.com BTW, margin is a sure fire way to lose money fast if you guess wrong. I avoid it like the plague.

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