Tero,
<< why is Unicom expanding the capacity of their GSM networks above 100 million? Are you expecting Unicom to rely on GSM-1xEV-DV hybrid? You mentioned a ramp-up for CDMA networks - how would Unicom switch from GSM to IS-95 after ordering the extensive GSM expansions? >>
I'd like to offer some opinion in response to your questions.
Before I do, some history and observations.
China has long been enamored with the CDMA air interface, and I have some vocational familiarity with that.
In February 1996. I attended a very preliminary, semi-informal, exploratory meeting (no NDA's had been passed) between representatives of a Chinese carrier, a manufacturer of CDMA & GSM infra and handsets (not Qualcomm), an ETSI SMG9 member, a CDG representative, and members of my (then) company, on totally neutral turf.
The topic was how to employ a CDMA air interface in a GSM environment, and/or how to add GSM data services or achieve interoperability between a CDMA network and a GSM network.
I personally, had no further personal involvement, in any follow up discussions, but it certainly aroused my interest.
Obviously, discussions have been going on ever since with some pain and suffering for all.
A CDMA SIM specification sat on the shelf since 1997, until it was recently dusted off, merged with a very similar Korean specification, updated with GSM phase 2+ STK enhancements, and with 3GPP USIM specifications, and hustled through TIA as a R-UIM standard. This potentially clears the way for some degree of interoperability between a GSM and CDMA network, particularly since dual mode handsets have been in the works for an extended period of time.
It is unclear to me how comprehensive the cross modal IS-2000A specifications dictated by OHG and prepared by 3GPP2 are, but I would assume that they clear the way for at least the possibility of a CDMA overlay of a GSM network.
I am under the impression that dual-mode GSM/IS95B handsets with a Qualcomm MSM 3XXX chopset are on the shelf as are unpersonalized China/Korea specific R-UIM's (and as a matter of fact these R-UIM's are probably being personalized and issued to business travellers now).
Dual-mode GSM/1xMC handsets will of course deliver as soon as Qualcomm releases the MSM5105 chipset, followed in time by MSM5100's, and beyond that MSM-5xWhatevers.
One of these years we'll even have a China component in the MSM5xWhatever.
As far as a GSM/CDMA hybrid, we appear to be in a favorable regulatory environment for same (compared to the EU or ETSI's domain).
CDMA overlays have been a part of Qualcomm's strategy for as long as I can remember. I now firmly believe that I will live long enough to see one, and if I see one, I will most likely see many.
Perhaps that elusive overlay will first be implemented in China.
In January 1998, ETSI and 3GIG elected to endorse a CDMA radio interface for UMTS.
I assumed, as did many others, (including Perry LaForge) that ETSI would consider CDMA as an upgrade path for 2.5G GSM. Lo and behold we get GPRS.
I hate to wave the QCOM flag on a Nokia thread whether moderated or unmoderated (which darned one am I on?) but QUALCOMM is one heck of a chipset designer, and so far the evolutionary path of cdmaOne/cdma2000 has been pretty darned seamless, and I am of the opinion that 1xMC with or without HDR, has significant advantages over the GPRS data overlay of GSM..
Seamless or not GSM/CDMA hybrids, voice and data overlays, or data only overlays, or HDR, put us in uncharted waters. Lead time to implementation now potentially stretches out from standards completion, compared to a cdmaOne, or 1xRTT implementation.
Here are my observations, opinions, or WAGs, supported by little if any fact.
<< why is Unicom expanding the capacity of their GSM networks above 100 million? >>
I would say that it is because they are a growing commercial network, now responsible to their shareholders, and aren't about to stop buildout while they finalize sophisticated network planning detail for their narrowband CDMA network.
I am obviously not familiar with the status of their GSM buildout or upgrade initiatives, except in a general sense, or the contract detail with infra vendors in any sense, but I am sure there are some excruciatingly detailed T&C's, performance clauses, and contingencies, inherent therein. Moreover, the GSM vendors need to walk softly in China right now I would think.
<< Are you expecting Unicom to rely on GSM-1xEV-DV hybrid? >>
Depending on when they start a CDMA buildout or GSM/CDMA upgrade, I suspect they will bring their inherited ANSI-41 networks as current as possible, and may install ANSI-41 networks on a regional basis.
1xEV-DV is not real near term. 1xMC is. 1xEV-DO has just gone to standard. Hopefully (as a Qualcomm Investor and just plain out of curiosity), I hope we do not have to wait for 1xEV-DV, to see CDMA in China or for CDMA overlay of a GSM net.
A GSM/CDMA hybrid is possible and I would suspect even probable for proof of concept, and advanced integration testing. We are dealing with new standards so that is not going to happen tomorrow, but early testing is probably going on in lab or on a test network right now. Koreans assisting? Probably.
<< You mentioned a ramp-up for CDMA networks - how would Unicom switch from GSM to IS-95 after ordering the extensive GSM expansions? >>
I think that the plan is to start to implement on a regional basis. It is a pretty darned big country.
I don't anticipate any switch. The overlay is or will soon be available, and possibly from the same vendors supplying infra today.
Can the NEW GSM/GPRS infra being implemented accommodate the requisite CDMA backbone, channel cards, packet data serving nodes and new software on both cell sites and switches? I certainly would not know. Presumably China Unicom does.
<< I'm not being sarcastic >>
Hopefully I am not either. It is subject matter that is of interest to me and you have posed good questions.
I have been very conservative in my attitude towards CDMA in China.
I am however, more positive about it today, than I have ever been.
GSM overlays? Maybe.
- Eric - |
