Hi Tom,
If you're hoping for a response which oozes Socratic stoicism, I can't deliver that. Fact is, these are trying times and as confident as I am that the story will successfully unfold, I'm terribly human. I'd be lying if I said my stomach was not a little in knots the last few days. My portfolio is really bleeding here.
That said, I did see a few signs that the bottom may be near. For the first time in this slide, I have seen very substantial bids sitting at and around $4.00. There was a single bidder for 55,000 shares at $3.95 all day, and at one point today, I was able to add up close to 100,000 shares of bid support scattered over 5 price increments. It seems to be to the point, where some of the houses are getting interested.
Also noticed that HSBC bought 4,000 at $4.10 today which is around the price they subscribed to the last financing. A small amount I know, but enough at the time to keep the price from declining further. Perhaps a little defending happening.
Volume still relatively light which is not indicative of a sell off on any sort of immanent negative news. As I mentioned above, if a house smelled bad news and wanted to bail, there were a 100K shares they could have sold to at $4.00. Selling was mixed today with no one clear big seller. Also, some small nibbling on the buy side from State Street which has only ever bought institutional size quantities in the past.
We are now to a point where we are almost 1/2 the market cap of Lorus (??????). How much lower can we go given that context. Let's also remember that we are getting no help at all from the markets. Geese, even Nortel is now at 43% of its year high and at a 52 week low. Sorry if I sound like I am making excuses for DMX, but misery loves company.
Tom, I am 100% confident we will get UK final. If not by Nov 30, then soon. For that, and that alone right now, I am still here. For the sake of being very conservative in assessing my position in this company, FDA is a non-issue for me right now. I am not counting on anything from them right now, despite all the rumours circulating. I want and expect UK and that is when I will take another look at why I am here.
I know that UK final approval will be the ticket to a much higher share price. We all know the product "works, and works well." I also have heard the accolades from so many people who have either used or prescribed Pennsaid, that the stuff will sell itself once its existence is made known. The efficacy and safety data, especially from the recent phase III is remarkable!
We are reaching that point of maximum fear right now, which if you subscribe to contrarian theory, usually precedes a near bottom. Look what the price had to do in August 98 in order to turn around -- now that was a moment of maximum fear. Speaking of contrarian theory, I think its been at least a few days since Wolf has posted that he has bought -- that's gotta be a good sign!
Sorry Tom, if you were looking for something more substantial. That's about all I feel right now.
Joe |
