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the two news releases today really intrigue me...haven't been able to stop thinking about the possibilities...stock was down in AH, but it also seems axiomatic that no one, especially an institutional lender, would announce to the World that they have made a margin call and will not commence liquidation until the next trading day. In other words, it would seem fair to say that the Bank has already sold whatever shares it needed to sell to satsify the debt. That would certainly help explain the significant selling pressure over the last few days. Let's take it a little further...let's suppose for a minute that, since the stock hit a low of <$1.50 on Nov.9th, a margin call was triggered at that time. The 9th was a Thursday. So, let's further suppose that the old friendly neighborhood lender gave little William until Monday to make a decision. Monday comes and William can't come up with the green, and he so informs the bank. Since Banks generally don't like to take much risk, it decides to commence with the liquidation. As stated previously, depending on the terms of the loan documents, the Bank has certain fiduciary responsibilities, which may include the prohibition from dumping 11.4 million shares on the market in one block. Fast-forward to today's action. Isn't it possible that, given the high volume today, the Bank may be finished liquidating this position? Unfortunately, the news release was ambiguous at best, but if they are finished, and the selling pressure should be lifted enabling the stock to move up more freely from here. Having said all that, absent other company news, election news and overall NAS conditions, I wouldn't expect a major move up until more visibility is cast on this issue. |
