The High Price of Russia's Military Improvement Plan
Summary
President Vladimir Putin has taken critical steps toward enhancing
Russia's military capabilities over the next five years. His
recently approved plan calls for severe reductions in service
people and civilians, with successive annual increases in defense
spending. The coming year will likely bring large-scale strikes as
military and civilian personnel demand justice and adequate social
benefits.
Analysis
After months of wrangling, the Russian government has settled on a
five-year plan to cut 600,000 service people and civilian staff
from the military's 3.1 million-member payroll.
The cuts, agreed to last week by Russia's Security Council and
President Vladimir Putin, are expected to bring closure to debate
on the issue. But among military personnel, the cutbacks which come
as Moscow finally gives uniform pay raises to the armed services
will likely incite strikes by personnel expecting to be discharged
or laid off.
The five-year plan for Russia's armed forces could change in both
its scope and its schedule. But staff layoffs scheduled for the
next year will provoke an aggressive response from government
employees and their families.
Russia plans to allocate nearly 20 percent of its federal budget to
defense in the coming year. Putin's objective is to boost this
amount annually. But this measure alone will not solve the problems
of Russia's military. Russian soldiers are notorious for being
underpaid and frequently forced to serve without pay. Moreover,
food and housing is considered inadequate for a modern army, and
equipment and training has been lacking for years.
Russia has moved slowly to plan cutbacks. Generals have resisted
the cuts, and civilian leaders hoped maintaining the military
trappings of a superpower might preserve Moscow's diplomatic clout.
But the strain of maintaining these troop levels merely advertised
weakness. Putin demands an end to this approach.
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Putin's solution to the military's shortcomings is to increase the
cost per soldier, affording each individual better training,
resources and services. Money saved from cuts combined with budget
increases will let Moscow multiply its spending per soldier over
the next decade. The plan is to optimize Russia's combat
capabilities and readiness, which are dismal at present.
Cutbacks in the five-year plan will come mostly from the ranks of
support and administrative personnel. A scheduled reduction of
365,000 by 2005 is under way for the Ministry of Defense. According
to this plan, about 5,000 airborne troops will be discharged in
2001.
Putin indicated Nov. 9 that the Interior Ministry will lose 33,000
employees while the Federal Border Service, Federal Security
Service, Federal Railroad Services and other agencies will lose
about 235,000 workers over the next five years.
The losers in this scheme will be those left to rely on social
protection benefits, which have decreased in the last year. Housing
and pensions for retired personnel do not appear to be a priority
in the new budget.
Though Putin approved a 10 percent increase in pensions beginning
Nov. 1, service people were hit by a new flat tax earlier in the
year and lost their transportation and utility privileges. The
increase in pensions does not absorb these costs.
Moreover, federal housing, offered to armed service pensioners,
will not accommodate the proportion of retired in need. The impact
on housing will be protracted, but as many as 240,000 officers and
380 generals will be eligible for federal housing over the next
five years. Current shortages in state housing certificates do not
portend to meet demand.
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This year, the federal government was able to present only 50
percent of certificates allotted for 2000. Less than one out of
four applicants actually received an apartment. This trend is
likely to worsen as cuts in armed forces proceed into the next
year.
The cutbacks will be especially painful for those laid off when on
the precipice of better times. The new budget allows a 20 percent
pay raise for armed service personnel by October, and the boost
could go as high as 40 percent. Pay within the armed services now
ranges from $14 to $800 per month, which in most cases is below
poverty level. Higher salaries apply only to combat soldiers, and
military paychecks in Russia are often delayed for months.
Moreover, Russia's armed service personnel are paid less than half
of what employees in other parts of government earn. Raises,
accorded by promotion, are also much smaller for those in the armed
services than for federal employees.
Russia's military downsizing will deprive workers of wage hikes at
a time when the pay could finally begin to meet cost-of-living
needs. Worse yet, laid-off service people and civilian staff will
have a very thin social safety net to fall back on.
The combination of boosting wages for remaining personnel and
executing substantial layoffs and discharges will incite strikes
among employees across Russia's armed services. Active duty
personnel will insist on better social protections in anticipation
of cutbacks.
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