Hello everyone. New to thread. Here are my thoughts on the company, some of them have probably already been expressed, but the ones that haven't might be useful.
As of March 31 they had a backlog of 96.1 million. That's roughly 210 lasers. Anyway. With a profit margin of say 19% that is 18.2 million profit, or roughly 1.20 per share. Now that should easily come in the next three qtrs right. coupled with the .29 per share and you have 1.49. Put that at a good PE multiple for a bull market and the second fastest earnings growth out there and a new issue and the PE should be around 80. so that puts this stock at 119. Not too bad.
Now if I am correct the Pentium II is still a .35 micron chip right.
Well we know that Intel's capital expenditures are set at 6 billion this year. Now given the recent shotages in both Pentium II and Pentium Pro, you would think that they would want a lot of these .35 micron machines. Plus, AMD, Cyrix (I'm not sure if they are customers) need these machines also. Well AMD plans to ship 1 million chips by fourth qtr (laugh (I thought they were a threat to Intel)) so they might need an extra machine or two. Now then Intel will also be gearing up for their new .25 micron plants. Then soon TI and AT&T will probably release their .18 micron technology, and they will need plants. That adds up for a lot of future sales. Now as of the Forbes article Cymer had 80% of these sales worldwide. These four new scientists, I assume are here to gear up some new lasers or x-ray machines for these new chips, so I assume Cymer will be a great big player for a while. but when you assume you make an ass our out of u and me, so whatever.
Anyway, when ASND (big winner) came public, their sales looked nothing like this, and their backlog was not near. So we'll just have to see. I say CYMI at 80 by mid-July. |
