Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: FESHBACH_DISCIPLE who wrote (720)	11/17/2000 11:14:46 AM
From: Warren Gates	Read Replies (1) of 74559

True, it may go even lower. What I'm interested in though is any intermediate bottom where I could put more money into play. Not that I'm complaining. Six percent return on cash is enough to pay the mortgage. I'd like some kind of run like this August where you could get some 20% gains just on QQQ, then safely tuck it in cash again. Playing the long side now really means playing those intermediate counter-trend rallies in what is assumed to be a bear market. There are normally 3 legs on the downside in a bear market. I believe the 1st leg was the Mar to May 2000 pt drop. Then we had the 1000 pt counter-trend rally that peaked in August. We are just about in the 2nd leg. I believe the 2800 level was the bottom and we're starting to form a counter-trend rally that may take us all the way back to 3500. Then a third leg should take us to the 2300-2400 this spring. If this materializes, Nasdaq would have lost more that 50% from the top. We then start playing the recovery period that will span years.

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