Merrill's Tech Guru Draws the Big Picture
Steven Milunovich is bullish on the Internet buildout
Wall Street brokerage firms employ armies of analysts to cover technology stocks, but nearly all focus on a narrow group, such as e-commerce companies, networkers, or PC makers. That's why Merrill Lynch (MER) named veteran computer analyst Steven Milunovich as its global technology strategist, a new position for the firm.
Milunovich's job is to synthesize the ideas of Merrill's 110 technology analysts who cover nearly 500 companies into coherent advice. He is to focus on big-picture trends, which are often neglected by analysts caught up in quarterly earnings forecasts. Given Merrill's vast reach, with 15,900 brokers serving over six million households, Milunovich's views could become influential. Personal Finance Editor Susan Scherreik recently spoke to Milunovich, 40, about technology investing.
Q: How about the wireless Internet?
A: The wireless buildout has barely begun. We think the device companies, such as Research in Motion (RIMM), Palm (PALM), and Handspring (HAND) will thrive, as well as new software names, such as Phone.com (PHCM) and services companies like Aether Systems (AETH).
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Q: Are you sounding the death knell for PCs?
A: PCs will continue to be big sellers, but they will no longer drive technology. The tech industry changes dramatically every 12 to 15 years, and the market leaders of one period rarely lead the next. In the 1970s and early 1980s, mainframes were dominant, and companies like IBM and DEC emerged as the leaders. Next came the PC era, giving rise to Microsoft, Dell, and Intel. Now we're in the network-computing period, which is about building the plumbing of the Internet.
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