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<<< Do you mean that after licensing from Amati they will become compliant and therefore the lag? (now vs 1998)
I'm not sure of the timing. I only know Alcatel has a solution now (some say near complete) and this has been done without the use of Amati's codes. The licensed version will use them. Designing chips is not a simple task, which leads me to think the mid to late '98 is an accurate estimate. Hasn't Motorola been working on CG about 2 years now? And how about TXN? Anyone know how long they've been at it?
<<<We know that there was a recent press release and I missed the contract part. Can you please share more details about the contract. Particularly is it going to be "soon" as per your previous explanation via Amati folks. Thanks and like many folks I too am deeply grateful for your informative posts. I am a bit concerned that your posts are always positive. Is it warranted?>>>
I've learned to take terms like "soon" and "any time" and "almost ready" with a grain of salt. They're relative but also the circumstances are subject to change making any predictions obsolete on the spot. As for Siemens, it is an OEM and I've heard rumored numbers but they are only that. They've come from secondary sources NOT from anyone inside the company. One person told me 60K units and another told me 100K, to begin mfg. in August. I think it would be safe to accept the smaller number and extend the starting date a bit --- just because I know how these things go. However, knowing that Amati has the C6X now and that it takes around 2 months to tweak it, August is not unreasonable.
You asked about my optimism. It's based on a long horizon and on a few key factors. To start with, Amati has technology that continues to blow the competition out of the water, add to that a world-class board of directors who've cut their teeth on companies like National Semiconductor, Oracle, and Credence, and then throw in a team of experienced managers, and you have a formula for success. So far they've met every challenge. Not everything has gone as planned, I admit, but seeing how they've adapted, I have more confidence, not less.
Because I have a long-term view, I've looked at each crisis and asked if it's altered the company's ability to reach their goals and so far it hasn't. I guess the beauty of the chips taking so long has been the fact the company's needed the time to negotiate contracts --- all the corporate legerdemain of licensing agreements, co-development deals, and full partnerships --- as well as maneuver the political shallows of standards bodies, FCC regulations, and international manufacturing accreditation.
Let's face it, if the chips were ready today, what would be different besides the fact many vendors wouldn't be signing "just in case" deals with second-choice suppliers? Are the RBOCs ready to deploy? Are AT&T, Sprint, or BT/MCI putting in CAP by the droves? How about at all??? The only place I see push coming to shove is with HKT and that's for a small number of ADSL lines they want right away. My point being that what appears as negative is really not and like I've said many times, if the long term picture is still solid, I don't feel any need to lose sleep.
The GTE announcements were huge and as soon as Amati nails down its data-communications partner, I'll throw away my Valium forever. (That's a figure of speech. I don't really take tranquillizers.:))
So what are my mid-term targets, meaning within 1 to 2 months?
* knowledge that CG is out
* GTE advanced trial vendor announcement(s)
* Alcatel and ADI licensing agreements formalized
* actual orders for the initial Siemens/Amati products
* BT/MCI elaboration of plans, including subcontractors (hung up due to merger)
* data-communications partnership announcement
* Wall Street following
Short term, within a week, I'm looking for:
* word on who's in Amati's booth at Supercomm (I honestly don't know)
* interoperability announcement
* other announcements at Superomm (was told there'll be more, just don't know what)
Long-term targets, 2 months or longer:
Contracts. . . contracts. . . contracts. . .
* rollout in US beginning with GTE
* rollout in Asia beginning with NEC/HKT
* rollout in Europe beginning with France Telecom, Deutsch Telecom, or perhaps Swiss PTT (guesses based on trials and comments picked up from trade shows)
* rollout in UK beginning with BT/MCI, along with ALA and perhaps Nortel (have heard we may have two connections, not just one).
* rollout in Singapore --- there's too much interest there for there NOT to be something. Okay, I had to have one wild card. :)
This is pieced together from many sources and I could be way off, especially on timing --- some could be sooner, some later. There are some names I've left off for fear of being flamed. Names that have popped up enough I think they're likely candidates for partnering but ones I can't verify right now.
Again this is just my opinion. I've been wrong before and will be again.
Some day ask me about my darkest moments and I may tell you. There have been a few but I might need a glass of wine to recount them.
As for my optimism, if you'd talked to TI's VP and had him squeeze your arm and tell you how big the bandwidth market was, or talked to IBM's director of the Ameritech trial and had him tell you Amati's great and to stop worrying, or talked to MCI's media representative and had him tell you he owned Amati stock, or visited GTE's Redmond trials and seen how far ahead the Allegro was, you'd be optimistic, too.
I've had some dark moments, but the bright ones far far outweigh them.
Cheers!
Pat
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