To: jim kelley who wrote (61372)
From: Jack Hartmann Friday, Nov 17, 2000 8:18 AM ET
Reply # of 61391
FOOL post on comdex and P4
I am just back from Comdex.
Intel had 60 software vendors at its P4 booth running P4 applications in four general applications areas.
Some observations:
1. Volume release on Monday the 20th. Dell and others will be taking orders for immediate delivery.
2. Some confusion still about the speeds that Intel will be shipping on Monday: One informant said that 1.7GHz would ship out the gate. Most said that the speeds would be as we have heard 1.4 and 1.5GHz on Monday with 1.7GHz to follow in Q1.
3. Of the 60 or so P4s being demonstrated, a few were 1.0 GHz Engineering Samples. From this and from talking to others, we can be sure that the earlier benchmarks posted on the various threads were based on de-rated P4s. Apparently Intel has the ability to do this easily.
4. SPEED: FAST, FAST, FAST! The P4 is not just a faster version of the P3 or the Athlon. I have been looking at new PC platforms since the Trash 80 from Radio Shack.
The P4 is truly revolutionary. It enables applications that can't even exist on current platforms, and some of them were there:
a. Real time speaker independent voice recognition and voice-to-text with full searchable indexing. It provides instantaneous key word retrieval of audio (lectures, radio programs, telephone conversations, Radio Wall Street, etc.) with no delay.
b. Full Screen 32 Frame/Second on demand TV over broadband with real-time decoding of JPEG-2 files over a 400Kbit connection.
This is near DVD quality in real time over a DSL connection. It was as good as my Cable set over a 200Kb link, again with real-time JPEG2 decoding.
c. I can't begin to describe the graphic on the games, or the P4's responsiveness when interacting with the games.
One example, the Toy Story sequence that shows the Toy soldiers marching in ranks across the field, using the mouse, I rotated the marching ranks as quickly a I could, 180 degrees, 360, 720, or just moving the mouse as quickly as I could.
The marching ranks never broke; the orientation was rearranged instantaneously as the ranks kept marching. The frame rate was mind-boggling. I have never seen the like.
d. By comparison, I looked at the demos at the Micron and AMD booths as well as MOBO suppliers such as I-Well and chipset vendors like VIA.
The DDR Demos were all scripted, the technology in sealed plastic boxes, and the demos, canned demos intended to show the DDR systems operating as rapidly as possible.
They showed DDR based Athlon systems as dead in the water by comparison with the P4 systems, particularly on graphics or media applications, both in terms of the speed of processing and the interactivity between user and the graphics processes.
This was particularly remarkable on the various games shown and 2 and 3 D graphics applications. No one can see these applications and note the performance with recognizing that a boundary has been crossed.
The difference is more dramatic than the jump from 8 bit Z80s to the IBM 80288, or from the IBM PC to the Macintosh. The P4 is revolutionary and the work to use it is already done for many applications.
5. The initial price of at least some P4 systems will be very low. OEMs suggested that there would be P4 systems hitting the streets next week priced as low as $1599.
You will be able to buy a fully configured P4 systems with 128 MB RDRAM Invidia GForce graphics, a big HD, a nice 17" screen, etc for less than the 1.2 GHz Athlon with DDR from Micron.
6. AMD and Micron PC are dead meat. There is no other word for it. This is not just a routine product transition. The P4 is revolutionary in its performance.
I think that without the P4 in the lineup, Micron PC is dead.
The P4 is so much faster than the DDR 266 1.2 GHZ Micron system that you will not need a benchmark to make a decision. When you see it you will want it.
7. The Rambus operation in Taiwan. It was set-up to support the MOBO manufacturers. I talked to VIA and ALI. They would like to get their hands on the Intel P4 stuff, but there are not there yet.
8. On the other hand, the MOBO guys are working furiously on RDRAM based MOBOs using the i850 chip set from Intel and expect to launch as soon as Q1.
No DDR or SDRAM based P4 MOBOs soon because they don't have a chipset to base on. Figure Q4 at the earliest for production of SDRAM or DDR based P4 systems.
9. Figure VIA will be the last to get licensed by Intel. They have about 90% of the chipset business other than Intel, who is taking market share from them as we speak.
Intel looks to delay VIA and to help VIA's competition. Perhaps a little punishment. VIA was being very hopeful, and saying good things about the P4. Don't want to make Intel madder, I guess.
10. IWill doesn't have any customers for its DDR MOBO (AMD 760 based).
11. IWill suggested that AMD will drop the 760 as soon as VIA and ALI get their DDR chipsets out.
12. About RAMBUS:
a. QRSL is moving ahead with new licensees.
b. Internal scuttlebutt is that Infineon will go the distance and not settle. Don't know what that is worth thought. The guys there don't have any better G2 than we do, maybe less.
c. Some of the execs at Rambus follow the Boards.
d. Rambus has a team looking at next generation stuff beyond QRSL. Focus is still on Chip-to-Chip interconnect.
e. SerDes was an acquisition. Others will follow as the opportunities appear.
f. Micron war is not aimed at Intel but at Rambus. MU hates the idea of paying royalties. They only a couple of years ago escaped from the vice of paying royalties to TI. They don't want to go through that again.
h. Internal belief is that Rambus will license Infineon, Hyundai and Micron when the three lose their lawsuits, even though they could legally deny them. They need the production to drive the prices down.
I will post more later as I have time to write.
JMO |
