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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Bull RidaH who wrote (38561)11/17/2000 3:58:14 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
oh, i'm prepared to switch sides quickly if need be...in fact, i'm using strong down days to pick up fallen angels selectively. however, propaganda alone won't do it...only if money supply growth re-accelerates will the market reverse substantially. the question is if that will happen or not.

i'm not advising anyone to do anything, least of all buy puts...everybody must know for himself what they're doing.
agree that the NYSE has held up well throughout this. and an argument could be made that it will probably lead whatever rally develops from the lows. BUT the bullish consensus is still way too high...money managers have their most bullish, and most fully invested stance in over 6 years. AAII just had one of its worst bull/bear readings EVER last week...Investors Intelligence has 51% bulls, also in the upper range for this survey. we'd need to see a real puking, one where money isn't just shifted around, but people trying to get out of EVERYTHING at ANY price. that's the kind of bottom i'd buy with both hands.

by that time i would expect the record short position in the spoos by the commercials to have reversed to a big long position - a precondition for every major bottom for the past 15 years.
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