NOV 17 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical readings:
DOW - midrange
SPX - midrange
OEX - upper midrange
NAZ - midrange
NDX - midrange
VIX - 28.00, oversold(inverse to market)
CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO -
Per my short-term technicals the overall market is again in the midrange. As mention often, midrange is FLIP-of-the-COIN territory and the upside potential room is similar to the downside potential room. The midrange is also common when the market is at an indecision point and awaiting news. Wonder what news the market is waiting for. gggggg
It was interesting to note that when the announcement came out around 10:00 am (FRI) in favor of BUSH, the market rallied strongly for about 15 minutes, only to lose it all. Subjectively, until this whole ELECTION RECOUNT MESS is over, I suspect that the upside is limited, but the downside may not be as limited as the upside. So, subjectively, this uncertainty is probably hurting the market for the short-term, rather than helping it.
Per my short-term technicals - if the market continues down, it would still take 2-4 days before I get CLASS 1 BUY SIGNALs for the overall market. Of course the market could just ZIG-ZAG, causing my short-term technicals to remain in the midrange and never get low enough into CLASS BUY territory before reversing back to the upside.
As previously mentioned, I have a mid-term CYCLE low on NOW 21(TUE +/- few days), and the week after OPTION EXPIRATION is commonly a weaker period.
Althought the uncertainty of the ELECTION RECOUNT isnt helping the market, Im also more inclined to also say that such uncertainty may also limit the negativity and not permit too strong of a selloff.
As mentioned yesterday, I have turned a bit more bearish, short-term in light of ease of yesterdays selling and since my short-term technicals were still in the midrange. So although the uncertainty may limit the downside, I would still not ignore the possibilty of NEW LOWER LOWs.
As of today, out website mutual fund account is now slightly biased to the downside in the ratio of 4:3 and with 73% cash. So from our account, HECK IF I KNOW !!!! |
