complacency factor in the market illustrated by the VIX and P C ratio?>>>
e, we had .89 p/c today, and the vix has been mostly over 25 with a couple of panic spikes over 30 over that last month, in terms of what we've seen over the last couple of years - thats dire panik makin bottoms, we should be on da chief's rocket ship by now.
however other sentiment indicators like rydex, aaii are showing too much bullishness, so the sentiment indicators are not giving too much of a clue.
especially the rydex is something, we have seen a drop of almost to 50% intraday in the ndx, but the ratio of bull money to bear money in OTC has never dropped below 93% bullish, that amount of bearishness was good enuf on may 23rd to give us a really good rally into july and sept, but the failed rally into sept may have changed the overall sentiment picture. too me 93% bull money shouldn't have been good enuf for the may bottom, but u don't always get all ur sentiment indicators to line up like the stars in orion, one thing that kept me from going thermonuclear off the sept. top was the lack of extreme call buying, like at the july top.
in july & early sept. we had a good contrary opinion situation for a top, the signal now still remains unclear, from the triangles on several leader stocks, it looks to me that we could just go sideways thru the holiday.
the dubya/g stalemate in the markitz -g- |
