VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: limtex who wrote (17704)	11/18/2000 7:20:01 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (1) of 65232

>> Isn't about time that we all recognized that we have totally misread this market and have consistently deceived ourselves since late March since we are in a bear market and not only a bear market but one of the worst bear markets in history? It depends on how narrowly you wish to make your definitions, L. Someone with all of their money in Lucent would define the entire year of 2000 as a bear market, finance.yahoo.com while those in Sun would swear it began in September. finance.yahoo.com I like to use a broad measure of the market, so I rely on spy (s&p500 index). finance.yahoo.com Though it has been incredibly volatile, spy is only down 7% ytd. I think it's premature to announce the death of the secular bull on that kind of move. Imo, what we're seeing is a massive sector rotation, with part of the capital being re-allocated to old economy stocks, but the larger part being held in cash, and reserved for the tech sector at an opportunistic moment. I also think that resolution of the presidential issue may signal that opportunity. If I'm right, we'll all be amazed at the speed of the nasdaq's recovery. jmho, uf

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