From the interview:
Q: Do you see any aberrations that would set this cycle apart?
A: This is turning into a classic slowdown in global economic activity, led by central-bank tightening and pushed further down by higher oil prices.
The last three recessions were caused by central-bank tightenings and oil shocks and we've got them. Many people, myself included, have forgotten what a sustained slowdown looks like or feels like-it's been 10 years!
That's why we're relying on these longer-term historical relationships.
Yes, but...
The Fed has now stopped easing
Oil prices up ? let's see...
dailynews.yahoo.com
The producer group has reached the end of a cycle that reinstates most of the supply curbs it put in place when oil prices crashed below $10 a barrel in 1998.
Ministers are predicting that crude oil, still well above $30, soon will fall into their target range of $22-$28 as the full impact of this year's 3.7 million barrels daily of supply increases is felt.
``We can only conclude that OPEC has more than fulfilled its role as a reliable oil supplier and that the true reasons for currently high prices lie behind a series of other factors,'' said OPEC President Ali Rodriguez of Venezuela.
Rodriguez took aim in particular at shrinking refining capacity in the United States, the world's biggest importer.
``The feeling we have now is that the market is getting perhaps a little a saturated and as stocks build up it is likely to hit us in the face later in the New Year if we don't watch it,'' said cartel secretary-general Rilwanu Lukman.
``We do not want to overdo it and put the market in a state of jeopardy.''
and then...
Oil: WInter Outlook 2000-2001
api.org
Plus....
Access to government lands...
api.org
ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES make old environmental arguments irrelevant.
Technology has revolutionized how oil and natural gas are found and produced. For example, we now can produce more oil with fewer wells thanks to three-dimensional seismic equipment that locates hydrocarbons with greater precision and directional drilling technology that allows a variety of productive reservoirs to be accessed from one location. Fewer wells mean less disturbance of the environment. Offshore wells can now safely capture oil and natural gas in ocean depths of thousands of feet in areas far offshore.
Who do we believe ???
At times I think that... the old investment theory that says... buy low sell high can only be achieved by.... well, buying low. That is, when prices are low.
On the other hand... it is true that no one guarantees that prices could go even lower than they are right now.
So, I guess that some "middle ground" comes to relevance here....
Are we going to hell in a hand held basket in the near future ?
A = Probably not.
Are we at the best of times, [in light of the "Indecision 2000 Mayhem"] ?
A = Probably not either...
hmmmm... so what is one to do ?
Buy a little (via options, i.e. say three months out selling naked or cash covered puts), and from there let's see what the hell ?? -g-
Just an idea....
Signed:
Ceasar
Recedite, plebes! Gero rem imperialem!
[Stand aside plebians! I am on imperial business. ] |
