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Strategies & Market Trends : Duke REIT (DRE)

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To: Judi Simpson who wrote (15)5/28/1997 9:02:00 AM
From: Richard Barron   of 27
 
Judi,
Cohen & Steers have 2 REIT funds RFI & RIF are the symbols. There are a few others also, but I'm not sure of their performance. REIT's can give you a compounded return of 12-20% over the long haul. They are less volatile than the market in general and will follow bonds and utilities to some degree. REIT's have outperformed utilities this last decade as FFO has increased, but utilities haven't had very strong earnings frowth in general in the last 10 years. Real estate is trading near the same price as it did 10 years ago, while the stock market is up more than 4 times since the 87 low. I think the tide will switch back to real estate appreciating faster than stocks for the next 5-10 years.
NPR, NHP, MT, and HCP are REIT's that have been around for more than a dozen years and had good long term returns exceeding 15% per year combined.
The time to sell is hard to gauge. REIT's tend to follow utilities with a 6 months lag. They will do better in times of higher inflation since their rents and property values will increase by the rate of inflation, but mortgage rates will remain constant if they lock in good long term rates. So, even though they will get hurt at first by inflation since the yields will rise, they will grow earnings faster and be able to hold their value.
Richard
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