| Now, Mr. Finsterwald, I never said that Hahn had made a "rookie call," nor did I suggest that ARBA wasn't in a risky position. I believe I recognized that it was as vulnerable as any high-flyer with a Twilight Zone price multiple. My criticism of Hahn, securitytrader.com, and others has to do with their methods, terminology, and sensationalism. As I recall, Hahn claimed not only that ARBA had formed a double top, but that its second top was also a double top. I still consider that description to be highly dubious in whole and part, at least by the standards of classical T.A. that Hahn was implicitly invoking. Hahn himself is obviously more sophisticated than the famous monkey throwing darts at the financial pages, and his main point, that ARBA was typical of tech stocks with great downside potential, seems to me to have been a fair if un-extraordinary observation, but presuming that ARBA's subsequent decline verifies all the terms of his analysis would amount to magical thinking, in my opinion. I'm sure you're sophisticated enough to recognize that one call does not make for a statistically significant sample, and, even if thirty such calls proved correct, it might suggest at most that he had been doing SOMETHING right, not that his T.A. of stock charts, at least as he presents it, is more than decorative. |
