Kenneth,
"This certainly sounds like rumor and speculation."
Well, at one time is was a rumor, but the rumor appears to have been confirmed. See below.
To: jghutchison who wrote (9804)
From: FESHBACH_DISCIPLE Saturday, Nov 18, 2000 11:39 PM ET
Reply # of 9818
Qwest said this week in a presentation that they will be phasing out sonet completely going forward.
Your comments are right on.
When QWest made its decision, the decision was between OC-48 and OC-192. Roth prevailed on QWest to go with OC-192. QWest did get state of the art equipment.
<<Snicker>>
This is what the coffee smells like:
OC-48 is SONET lingo for 2.5 Gbits/sec data rate. OC-192 is SONET lingo for 10 Gbits/sec. As I understand it, Nortel SONET equipment uses two fibers to transmit and receive, whereas Ciena's DWDM uses a single fiber with multiple channels, each capable of carrying OC-192 or 10 Gbit/sec data.
Let's compare the two technologies.
Assume Qwest installed Nortel "state-of-the-art" OC-192 legacy SONET equipment, which requires the use of two fibers. The throughput rate would be 10 Gbits/sec.
Next, let's assume that the same two fibers were used for Ciena's OC-192 DWDM equipment with 40 channels. Then
10 G/sec x 40 Channel/fiber x 2 fibers = 800 G/sec
"They were ahead of the pack in their decision to go with Nortel."
Are you sure you want to stick with that statement?
"Of course, they want an alternative vendor. The question is whether they can find one. Can Ciena ramp up its production enough to substantially reduce Nortel's market share. I doubt it."
Can Juniper Networks ramp up its production enough to substantially reduce Cisco's market share? QED
I believe much of Nortel's capex spending is budgeted for manufacturing of SONET, optical components, and DWDM. Possibly some for optical switching. Nortel may even supply some components to Ciena and other systems manufacturers. So, what is your point? Are you implying that Ciena is incapable of capturing market share because it cannot make the equipment fast enough? Juniper outsources all of theirs. What is to stop Ciena from doing the same, if need be? I don't believe the Company is turning any business away as yet. But, I'm counting on it.
Jack Hutchison |
