<They tend start pulling back on spending, and those not so necessary items.. Like Wireless Services.. > Wrong, wrong, wrong. Wireless services are necessary items. As was shown in the great Korean collapse of 1998, when the gloomy doomsters seemed to think the whole country had disappeared from the map of the world, the sale of CDMA wireless services didn't slow down at all.
Wireless services are especially necessary for people earning a living because they must communicate. Lazy, retired, jet-set travellers don't need phones so much - they seek peace, quiet, sunshine, leisure and pleasure and NO phone calls [other than a few 'keep in touch' efforts].
So, when the Koreans cancelled their overseas holidays [the visits to New Zealand dropped by about 90%], they stayed home, bought more CDMA phones and got back to work.
The same thing would happen if there was a recession anywhere else. Communication is not a fun thing, it's an essential component of being alive and earning a living. Wireless makes it easier and cheaper to communicate. CDMA and the Internet do it in spades!
Luxury spending will be the first to go - flash travel to exotic destinations and nice hotels for example. Not cellphone services which will be the last.
Yes, oil is high in price. It is much higher than is sustainable. At these prices, competing products will be taking large chunks of market share. That is bad for Saudi Arabia and other producers, so they'll be forced to cut prices to maintain sales. But that will reduce their income so the pressure to produce will become relentless.
Above $15 a barrel, Saudis face too many competitors. Don't expect to see oil prices stay up for long. By the end of 2001 oil prices should have sagged way down again and The New Paradigm will be roaring unabated with CDMA in the vanguard.
Alan Green$pan will not be able to do anything about it because prices will be dropping = the old deflation fear. The stockmarket will be roaring; especially QUALCOMM and Globalstar [if they get the marketing right and finish the soft rollout] and other strongly competitive technology stocks.
The Dow will reach 16,000 by Feb 2002. Alan Green$pan will CUT interest rates to try to avoid deflation. Cuts with rising stock-market prices = very, very cool! I've waited a few years for that. Stock prices will go berserk when people see what's happening and they try to crowd in.
That's a fitting celebration for our leap into cyberspace, The New Paradigm, CDNA[TM] and the biotech revolution.
Yes, wireless service is new technology, but that doesn't mean wireless is luxury technology.
Mqurice
* CDNA = cyber deoxyribonucleic acid. We'll design and build our DNA to suit what we want, not what the random history of nature, red in tooth and claw, has inflicted on us.
PS: Thanks for the correction TK...[editing done] |
