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Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box

QQQ 623.28

+0.7%

Nov 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: dli who wrote (7495)	11/19/2000 4:56:17 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) of 10876

Dave, Excellent points also. I'll add a few. - soft landings are an urban legend, they don't happen. - markets don't go from grossly overvalued to fair value. History has shown that when things fall apart, markets must first become undervalued before a recovery is possible. - the Naz isn't going to bottom until levels are reached that people aren't even willing to discuss yet. People have to hate tech and not want to own it before a bottom is in place. - the bottoming process could take years. It's entirely possible that the Naz will get back above 4000 before a bottom happens. Markets don't go straight down. - leverage is a double edged sword. Big tech has been artificially inflated because "investment" income has been allowed to be added to the bottom line thus distorting P/e ratios (such as CSCO, INTC, MSFT, etc.). YoY comparisons are going to look terrible for many of these companies even if business is good simply because these type of gains on speculative stocks won't be repeated. Look at INTC, how good will YoY comparisons look when they have taken anywhere from $.725 to $2.3 billion in these type of gains every quarter this year? "Those that don't study history are doomed to repeat it, those that study history but ignore its consequences deserve to repeat it." chic

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