I'm no expert either but don't you think that there would be considerable lead times, possibly measured in years, before this would have any effect on the demand/supply equation?
That is my assumption as well... However, (here comes the Psychological part)... With the prospect of the US reducing its dependence in foreign oil for its consumption (I belive currently 55 %), this would create a climate under which OPEC would quit being so arrogant as to establish production quotas, and/or price targeted policies, all the while taking credit as benevolent evil bastards -g-
In addition, imagine what it would do to the strength of the US economy NOT having to IMPORT that much oil... (I believe that the % of imported oil would fall to as much as 25 %. Of this I am not sure 100 %, I think I read it in the URL that I posted yesterday.... I will double check it.
In addition, it is NOT only the north slope that additional production is possible, there are other areas, such as Montana, Wyoming, and others where this oil would be coming from. It is possible that the time frame we are looking at may not be all that long, since these other areas the infrastructure may already be in place... I will check it.
All this, I am sure that it would have some influence in the price of oil !
I just remember there is a guy here in SI that is familiar with the oil industry... I am going to go fishing to see if I can bring him to the thread...
[this way I will learn what the hell I am talking about -g-] |
