Another "window of opportunity" for AMD?
Niceguy, isn't it funny: AMD is always said to have just a short window of opportunity ahead. After that it will be roadkill. So stay away from their shares!!
It started with the introduction of the Athlon in July/August '99. Of course, at that time Intel was just preparing to launch its invincible Coppermine. And even before that, the fabulous i820 chipset was to kill AMD entirely. So AMD just had the July-September timeframe to make some small inroads before the final blow by Intel. Nothing to justify a share price well above the book level...
Unfortunately, the i820 was delayed, therefore extending AMD's window of opportunity (or let us say life span) for a little while. But finally the Coppermine was to arrive to make an end to AMD's short party.
Well, unfortunately again, it turned out that at the time of the Coppermine launch there were some slight processor shortages. Nothing serious, they will be overcome at the beginning of 2000. So AMD's window of opportunity extended into early to mid Q1 2000. But after that, there is definitely no hope for AMD.
Hmmm, somehow the Coppermine flood did not take place in Q1 2000. But Intel's notched gates process was just around the corner. Be sure, when April '00 will come, huge amounts of fast Coppermines will finally find their way to the markets. Then there will be no reason any more to buy an Athlon. So AMD does not have a song and a prayer.
April passed by and the promised flood of GHz Coppermines was postponed to July. Anyway, early September the P4 will be released which, believe me, will shut down AMD's window of opportunity once and for ever.
Oh, sorry, not early September but late October. Nevermind, AMD is as good as roadkill.
Now it is November 20. You still can't find a GHz Coppermine in Germany. The P4 is finally released but it doesn't look very threatening any more. But wait, in 6 - 9 months the next version of the P4 is going to arrive. THEN AMD's days of glory will be over...
I wonder whether the Hammer will extend AMD's window of opportunity a littlebit more. For 2 months? Or even full 3 months? What do you think?
Greetings,
Peter |
