Was there any question. I am buying gold and I ain't buying anything quite yet. But that's just cuz I am a poor broken clown.
Actually, I think that the question to ask is "what has changed from a year ago?"
1. Are all of the potential users of the internet online?
2. Is there anything that will bring more internet users online?
3. Did the infrastructure buildout get ahead of itself?
4. Are the service providers unable to pay for further infrastructure buildout?
5. Is there some other sector, which has money, that can position themselves as a telecom service provider?
6. Does the fact that many dotcoms are going under help or hurt the remaining internet businesses?
7. Does the internet really make our lives more convenient?
8. Does the internet make business more efficient?
9. Will age demographics help or hurt the internet?
If the answer to these questions gives a negative outlook, maybe this is the end of the secular bull. If it is positive, I would say that it shows that the secular bull is still alive and that we are just correcting the excesses of the mania.
I believe that as last mile broadband is made available, it will enable more interesting applications to be made available to the customer and will allow the service providers to consolidate their infrastructure and provide a menu based list of services to the end user which will lead to a more profitible business model. If the current crop of service providers can't pull it off, I believe that you will see companies from other sectors (such as energy) step up to the plate.
I haven't stepped into a store for christmas shopping in a couple of years. I do my banking online, I do my stock transactions online. I do my expense reports online, I set up my travel online, directory services, movie listings, maps, business research, personal and family relationship maintainance.....all online. The internet has made my personal and business life easier.
B2B solutions have the potential to provide increases in efficiencies in the supply chain that haven't been seen since MRP was first introduced.
The culling of the dotcoms and CLECs that couldn't show a profit will mean that the survivors will have stronger business as they will pick up their customers. People are looking for solutions, just because a dotcom or CLEC disappears, doesn't mean that their customers don't need solutions. This was a healthy culling of the herd.
There is a large population who did not grow up with the internet and who will have minimal interest and even resistance to the internet. And there is large population that has grown up with the internet who is not contributing yet to the growth of the internet. Every year, you will get a new crop of high school and university students who will graduate and enter the workforce and start new homes and need internet services....and they will take the place of the elderly population who generally will have minimal interest in what the internet can provide. This will goose the growth of the internet beyond the a pure linear growth model in itself.
I believe that the secular bull is just resting.
BR |
