max
here is a bit from bloomberg:
Pentium 4 will still start slow. Feibus expects less than
500,000 units to ship this year. Though he said Intel will beat
his earlier projections for 14.5 million units in 2001, it won't
approach the 60 million desktop Pentium IIIs he expects to sell
this year.
Paul and Elmer assured us that it would be in millions this year hence the article
is obviously wrong
``More and more, (Pentium 4) is looking bigger and bigger for
next year,'' said Mercury Research analyst Mike Feibus.
Does he mean size?
and the best one:
Intel had warned PC makers that though the Pentium 4 would
offer hefty performance increases, it would be bigger and more
expensive than its best Pentium IIIs. The Santa Clara, California-
well one out of two is not that bad <ggg>
Regards
-Albert
Intel Unveils Pentium 4, Sees Production Advantages (Update1)
(Updates with closing share price.)
Santa Clara, California, Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Intel Corp.
began selling its long-awaited Pentium 4 processor, and executives
said slowing demand for personal computers could actually work to
the No. 1 chipmaker's advantage for a change.
Intel today officially unveiled the Pentium 4, the latest in
its best-selling product line. A 1.4-gigahertz device sells for
$644, with a 1.5GHz version at $819 each in volume quantities.
Analysts have long said Pentium 4 would become an important
weapon against increasingly competitive chips from Advanced Micro
Devices Inc. As concern over slack demand for PCs mounts, the very
forces that hurt Intel earlier could help Pentium 4 win acceptance
and speed plans for volume production. Intel now has capacity free
for the new chips, and memory-chip makers may be more willing to
build the specialized chips Intel needs, Executive Vice President
Paul Otellini said. Analysts agreed.
``More and more, (Pentium 4) is looking bigger and bigger for
next year,'' said Mercury Research analyst Mike Feibus. ``Things
are coming together.''
Intel had warned PC makers that though the Pentium 4 would
offer hefty performance increases, it would be bigger and more
expensive than its best Pentium IIIs. The Santa Clara, California-
based chipmaker said it would only be able to offer the chips for
expensive PCs at first.
That's all still true. The theory now is that lower sales
this year and slower growth in 2001 means Intel could ship large
quantities of Pentium 4s sooner than expected and speed up plans
for less expensive ones that could reach more consumers.
Intel shares fell 38 cents to $41.13, and AMD fell 19 cents
to $20.38 on the New York Stock Exchange. Intel stock is little
changed this year, while AMD has gained 41 percent.
Capacity Snafu
Demand for chips skyrocketed this year as consumers and
businesses flocked to the Internet, stretching Intel's capacity to
the limit. As the company faltered, AMD gained customers because
its bigger rival couldn't increase production fast enough.
That's no longer the case. As demand wanes, space opens -- in
effect, adding capacity for Pentium 4, Otellini said.
Because AMD has been so successful, Intel must lower the
costs of the Pentium 4 quickly -- so it can go in more mainstream
desktop machines sooner. Analysts said the chip will only appear
in the most expensive PCs, costing about $3,000, this quarter and
possibly the next one.
``That's a very narrow market,'' Insight 64 analyst Nathan
Brookwood said. ``If Intel can drive to higher volumes and clock
rates, that will give them some advantage.''
Intel plans to boost the speed to 2GHz by the third quarter
of next year. AMD's flagship Athlon operates as fast as 1.2GHz.
Rambus Questions
Slowing demand may also help head off another problem. Intel
has come under fire for choosing a new memory design from Rambus
Inc. to work with the Pentium 4. PC makers complain Rambus is more
expensive, and some memory-chip producers have balked because it
costs more to build.
That could have meant big trouble. Analysts and executives
earlier this year had predicted a shortage of dynamic random
access memories, the main memory chips in PCs. Prices soared,
limiting the appeal of using capacity for Rambus.
DRAM prices have fallen more than 50 percent in the past
three months as demand slid. That makes it more likely that Intel
will get the level of memory support it needs, analysts said.
``Suddenly, Samsung is happy to fill its capacity with
anything, and suddenly, anything mean Rambus,'' Feibus said.
Otellini, who runs the computer-processor group, said falling
DRAM prices make Rambus ``more attractive'' for memory makers.
Slow Start
Pentium 4 will still start slow. Feibus expects less than
500,000 units to ship this year. Though he said Intel will beat
his earlier projections for 14.5 million units in 2001, it won't
approach the 60 million desktop Pentium IIIs he expects to sell
this year.
Otellini said Pentium 4 unit sales will top Pentium III in
early 2002 and that the company hopes to accelerate that timeline.
Manufacturers including Dell Computer Corp., Hewlett-Packard
Co. and International Business Machines Corp. showcased PCs based
on the Pentium 4 at the Comdex trade show last week. Those
companies and others will introduce systems with the chip within
the next month, Otellini said.
--Cesca Antonelli in the San Francisco newsroom (415) 743-3532, or
at fantonelli@bloomberg.net/cs/jac
Story illustration: For a graph of Intel shares over the past five
years, see {INTC US <Equity> GP W <GO>}.
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