Fully agree. My targets would be the Oct. 98 lows, about 950 on the S&P, 1800-2000 on the Naz and below 7,000 on the Dow. At that point, I believe we'll be in recession and have a proposal to privatize a portion of Social Security on the table.
If privatization of S.S. is approved, we could go even lower, like the '73-'74 bear market. It's just up to A.G. on how he wants to do it. But this isn't Japan; short-term rates are 6 1/2 percent, so A.G. has a lot of gasoline on hand; it just depends on how he wants to use it.
By 2002, there should be a fair amount of pent-up consumer demand. I remember 1975 pretty well, I was in high school. The Dow rose, I think, 31 percent that year, and folks were just joyful.
Anyhow, the new gorillas likely are JNPR, NTAP, maybe ARBA, etc. Maybe they'll dive into the $40 range, who knows. It'll be like buying MSFT and ORCL before the crash of '87.
This will be my last post for a while. I would like to thank everyone on this thread for being so understanding in this, er, interesting period of history in which we live.
And thanks, Greg. Rock on, dude.
PB |
