WT, I too, appreciate your intelligent posting here.
I'd like to buy back in around $15. Which I think is a realistic price under the current cloudy conditions. I think ORCL may get there sooner than later.
How much cloudier do you think things have to get before you gonna see a fall off in the stock another 40 percent? Presently, we have some pretty large cloud over the market that has cast a fairly dark and quite large shadow since Nov. 7. Against this backdrop we have had fears of inflation, a slowing economy, some earnings disappointments, a perceived short term slowdown in spending in the telecom sectors, a fall out among most, if not all dot-coms leaving question to how many will be left standing? The list goes on.
But in light of this all, the large cloud resulting from political uncertainty of our nation's next presidential administration will soon be lifted, and notwithstanding the arguable smaller cloud that might linger over the next presidency until the nation and its leader can take steps to heal from the divisive wounds of the past few weeks overcome this "mandate" issue, I would counter that overall conditions from this point in time are more likely to get less cloudy than more cloudy.
On the ORCL front, notwithstanding the glowing perceived prospects for this company earlier this year' the market's earlier disappointment; dissatisfaction with 1Q results, particularly in the area of application growth; and the continued pounding analysts have given the stock as a result thereof, not to mention the departure of Ray Lane, the rumored departure of Jeff Henley and early death of Larry Ellison, and now most recently the unexpected resignation of Gary Bloom, while a highly-touted rising exec, upon closer inspection, not tremendously critical to the IMMEDIATE issues facing ORCL, I ask you again, how much "cloudier" can things get for a stock like ORCL fall ANOTHER 4O PERCENT?
I sold out my whole ORCL position between $40-$32 because I just didn't like the overall market trend and ORCL's in particular.
Unlike most here, I and I'm sure others appreciate you effort to disclose your position in the stock, or lack thereof. But I can't help but to question you, based upon your disclosure, your likely lack of objectivity, just as you could counter I and others who remain long this stock.
My point is not to challenge you on your comments point for point, but to challenge your objectivity and to cause you to pause and rethink your statements here, not based upon which the direction you think the stock is likely to go because it is more apparent that that is unlikely to change, but the MAGNITUDE in which it will head in that projected direction. |
