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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis
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To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (36016)11/21/2000 9:53:26 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (2) of 42787
 
NOV 21 INDEX UPDATE(PART 2)
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Although I am starting to become less bearish/more bullish per the last index update, there is one more negative I need to mention.

The 9-month CYCLE LOWs are arriving around JAN 6, which implies that the market could set a more important low towards the end of DEC/early JAN. For the 9-month cycles I use a buffer of +/- 2-3 weeks.

Lets assume that the market does put in at least a short-term bottom this week/early next week, then how do we justify the 9-month cycle low.

Firstly, the 9-month cycle low does not necessarily have to be a LOCAL LOWER LOW.

Heres a possible senerio that could include the 9-month cycle:
1) A short-term and possibly a mid-term cycle low is set this week
2) The END-of-MONTH RALLY starts things off to the upside next week. Statistically, the END-of-MONTH RALLY starts during the last 2 days of the month and lasts 3-5 days into the following month.
3) With minor oscillations/ZIG-ZAGS the overall market rallys into DEC's option expiration(DEC 15).
4) After DEC's expiration(DEC 15) the market pulls back. How strong could that pullback be - too early for hints yet.
5) The pullback lasts 1-2 weeks, then towards the end of DEC/1st half of JAN the NEW 9-month cycle starts and then a longer-lasting rally starts, which could last until MAR/APRIL. Keep in mind that the platform to start the NEW 9-month CYCLE could be from a HIGHER LOCAL LOW.

Another possibiity, although less likely, is that the 9-MONTH CYCLE starts a month+ early and lines up with the lows which could arrive this week/early next week.
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