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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: limtex who wrote (35133)11/21/2000 11:25:52 AM
From: Seeker of Truth  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
"As the recession begins to bite .." What recession, pray? You are forecasting a recession but that is forecasted 27 times each decade. Of course we will have recessions but there are all kinds of mini dips which confuse the issue. As for bonds, if you really know the trend of the interest rates, i.e. you can forecast the direction with certainty, you will be worth billions to the big banks. You'd better stop reading this board at once and go sell them your consulting. The truth is recessions, interest rates etc. are difficult to forecast. Banks overlend and underlend, etc. etc. You are so pessimistic, I wonder if you are losing a bundle on margin? I posted once here my belief that the portfolios of those who frequently use margin don't do as well as those who sometimes use margin. And the latter portfolios don't do as well as no margin portfolios. This is not only my opinion but also my observation. Can we reliably forecast market tops so that the penalty of early payment of capital gains taxes can be more than compensated for? I'm openminded about this, but basically I think there's no reliable way yet to do it. To be sure the P/E's these days have been the highest in history BUT SO HAVE THE GROWTH RATES BEEN THE HIGHEST IN HISTORY. I remember when 25% a year was greased lightning. Most of the gorillas are doing way better than that. 25% a year used to be worth a P/E of 50 or so. What is 50% a year worth? I guess nobody knows but don't assume you'll be able to buy them for 50 times earnings also. Gorillas can be overvalued at times but one can't reasonably expect to pick them up for ordinary prices.
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