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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems

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To: Yaacov who wrote (38080)	11/21/2000 1:30:20 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) of 64865

let's get serious ... all right ... I think we can all agree that we are in a bear market of serious proportions ... but when will the overall market turn, and start heading north ... ... my analysis and opinion ... assumptions .... (1) there will be a rally (of sorts) when Wall Street realizes that there really is a new president-elect (not later than early December) ... (2) if the FED moves to a neutral bias on interest rates in December, it will magnify the rally to the upside and if not, it will cut the rally short ... (3) there will be no bottom until consumer confidence falls in a significant way ... (4) there will be no true turn in the market until profits for U.S. corporations have bottomed, and until profits are viewed as turning up ... analysis ... I do not believe that corporate profits in the U.S. will seriously turn north until the FED start decreasing interest rates ... I also believe that early warnings in December and January will keep equity markets declining, and also that earnings reports in late January will keep markets on the move down ... if we start to get FED easing in early 2001, and early warnings decline significantly in late March ... and then, earnings reports in late April start to improve, we could be in the beginnings of a new bull market ... my plans ... start to establish new positions for technology stocks when the FED starts to cut rates ... and then strengthen those positions as earnings reports start to improve ... my report card ... I'm plus 851% since October, 1997 ... I'm plus 40% for calendar 2000 ... and my two S&P 500 'puts' have doubled in value to date ... my present positions ... 500 shares of SUNW ... 12,000 shares of ABMD ... two March S&P 500 'puts' ... and lots of cash ... Happy Thanksgiving to all of you. Very sincerely, Ken Wilson Disclaimer: The above is my personal opinion. I recommend that you do not base your investment decisions solely on any one person's views or analysis (including mine). Do your own research and take personal responsibility for your investment decisions.

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