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Technology Stocks : EXLN - Excelon
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To: ahhaha who wrote (629)11/21/2000 4:45:07 PM
From: hasbeen101  Read Replies (1) of 811
 
Since early October when EXLN was at 10 there has been little institutional or trader selling in the stock. The move from 10 down has been small fry public selling, the selling that comes from previous buying built on speculation rather than fundamental conviction. Market conditions have allowed the public to take price down. The stock is now trading at its intrinsic value with no expectations for the future.

I know that you know (from Valuation 101) that the expected return on a stock is based on the present value of future cashflows. You also know that these cashflows can take the form of the company being sold to another party, or they can take the form of earnings.

As the management have indicated they would not accepts a takeover at anywhere near these levels, and the earnings have consistently been negative with no clear trend showing they will turn positive, I think it's inescapable that the present stock price in fact factors in a substantial improvement upon the present state of affairs.

If you think the stock price should be higher than now, then you are expecting an even bigger improvement than the one discounted into the present stock price.

Would you care to share with us your current revenue and earnings projections through to the end of 2001?
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