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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam

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To: freeus who wrote (6903)	11/21/2000 4:51:08 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 13572

Fre - I am no expert What I am an expert in is seeing all my calls get hammered. Every bounce is not as high as the previous one and everything just keeps going down. Even low PE stocks like ATML and SSTI keep getting hammered. One way to play it is the way greg does, in reverse. Look for resistance levels and if a stock bounces off that buy a few PUTs. I like to buy them about 10 points out or so on a fast moving stock, 5 points out on a slower moving stock (CSCO). A few months out. I wish I had been doing this for the past 2 months instead of what I have been doing (losing money on the long side). What really gets my craw is I called exactly where these stocks were headed PMCS (I said 117 when it was 220), NTAP (50 when it was 110), etc etc etc. I just did not think this would happen in an election year and I kept waiting for bounces that never happened. Very very sad. That said, I believe NTAP (can not will) drop to 20, I do think CSCO will drop to 30 or below, JNPR and PMCS to 50 or so. Thus we still have a lot of excess to give up. With slowing growth, these PE's are absurd! I have the bottom of the bear market in about FEB or March of next year. 1900-2200 on the NAZ. On every rebound I am buying more puts. Note: This is dangerous now because a "BUSH election rally can happen at any time". I did buy CIEN puts today when it stalled at 99. I will add more at the next resistance level of about 110. I am just nibbling now, but it does seem easier than the long side where I keep getting killed on my trades. How overvalued do you think the market is? If you concur that it is over-valued start raising some cash, and selling into rallies. Pick some real losers and short or buy puts on any bounce. Ask Jeeves (ASKJ) or AMZN for example. I closed my PUTs on AMZN way too early. SCMR is dead IMO. Buy some puts on any bounce. There is no support below from waht I can tell. I bought SCMR puts today as well. Again just a few. RBAK is headed for 40 or below but it can spike 15 points easy. Wait for a spike and short into it (I have not shorted) or buy a few puts. Hope that answers the question good enough. One more thing. Do not be greedy, when there is a huge down day, close out the PUTs if you have a reasonable profit. Wait for a rebound and reestablish the PUT. Greg, any favorites that you think are way overvalued?

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