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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (39784)	11/21/2000 9:17:35 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) of 436258

Funny - 8 billion shares was also the number I had in my head. I'm guessing your rationale is similar to mine: the 1987 panic day had roughly quadruple the average volume leading up to it. We've been having 2.0B share days on Naz, so I figured a good panic would involve an 8B share, 20% down day. After looking closely at Japan's troubles, though, I think it may just look a lot like one of their really bad weeks - another five day stretch that gives up well over 20%, with moderate increases in volume. Everyone is investing by proxy these days, so it really takes J6P getting motivated to sell. J6P just isn't all that prone to snap decision making. In 1987, the bulk of the money was being actively managed. The morons running the funds these days don't think it's their responsibility to do any asset allocation at all, and the even dumber "investment advisers" claim that they don't want them doing asset allocation anyway. They think that asset allocation merely requires looking at the individuals age and determining how much tech stock to buy as a result. No thought that valuation might actually enter into an asset allocation decision. We'll see where that gets them... Good pop question for prospective investment advisers for family/friends: How much did the DJIA gain from 1929 to 1982? Answer: it only doubled. Less than 2% per year. Lost to inflation big-time. Price does matter. QED. BC

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